The Debates: Why Kerry Is The Underdog

The Debates: Why Kerry Is The Underdog


By Richard S. Dunham With Mike McNamee
Business Week
Updated: 12:00 a.m. ET Sept. 27, 2004


One thing is certain in the upcoming Presidential
debates: George W. Bush won't be, to use his own word,
"misunderestimated." After besting smartypants Al Gore
four years ago in the court of public opinion -- if
not on debate points -- Bush earned his spurs as an
effective rhetorician whose folksy "average Joe"
approach in televised encounters has disarmed foes in
three straight elections. And while Republican
spinners will build up John Kerry as a brilliant
debater with a track record worthy of the National
Forensic League Hall of Fame, it is the President's
challenger, not the President, who is on the spot as
the debates open at the University of Miami on Sept.
30.

Kerry, whose eight 1996 Senatorial debates against
Republican rival William Weld are the stuff of
Massachusetts legend, will have to be in top form.
After six months in the lead or deadlocked, the
Democratic nominee has dropped behind Bush. Equally
disconcerting to Dems, Bush now is the people's choice
to handle two of the three top issues -- terrorism and
Iraq -- while he's holding his own on the economy. The
three Presidential debates and one Vice-Presidential
face-off could be Kerry's last best chance to reshape
the contest. "The debates are going to be enormously
important," says his campaign manager, Mary Beth
Cahill.

For Kerry to break through, he will have to survive a
clash of debating styles. Bush tends toward the
vernacular, while Kerry is far more formal. The
plainspoken Bush needs to avoid factual error. The
more cerebral Kerry needs to avoid condescension.
Immodesty is "the common mistake senators make and why
they don't get elected as Presidents," says Republican
pollster Ed Goeas. "If Kerry falls back to where he's
comfortable -- I'm smarter than George W. Bush -- he
will lose the debates."

Americans, say Goeas, want a candidate who is "strong
enough to govern." That's why top Democrats say Kerry,
while on the stage near Bush, must appear to be a
plausible Commander-in-Chief. "The threshold issue
[voters] want to be assured of is that they will be
safe and their country will be safe," says House
Minority Whip Steny Hoyer [D-Md.]. To score, Kerry
must outline his plans for the war on terrorism and
postwar Iraq "with a great degree of clarity and
forcefulness," says Hoyer.

Changing the Subject

That's a challenge for a candidate derided as a
congenital flip-flopper. But Kerry can't simply play
defense on defense issues -- he needs to change the
subject. Zogby polls show that voters most concerned
about terrorism favor Bush by 41 percentage points.
Those more worried about the economy choose Kerry by
14. "As long as Senator Kerry engages the President on
the war on terrorism, he loses," says pollster John
Zogby. "He has to focus on the economy."

That could be difficult. Only one debate will be
devoted to domestic concerns -- the final one. History
shows that "the first debate, not the last debate, is
the most important," says Brookings Institution
Presidential scholar Stephen Hess. "By the time they
move to domestic issues, the election could be over."

Then again, debates are unpredictable, and stumbles by
two incumbents -- Ford and Carter -- contributed to
their defeats. But Kerry can't count on a Bush gaffe.
To best the Prez, he must look smart but not elitist,
strong but not strident, and decisive, not constantly
inconstant. Even for a skilled debater, that's a tall
order.

Copyright © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies Inc. All
rights reserved