Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election

Labor Memo Suggests Bush to Win Election



Oct 29, 3:53 PM (ET)

By LEIGH STROPE

WASHINGTON (AP) - Labor Department staff, analyzing
statistics from private economists, report in an
internal memo that President Bush is likely to do
"much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are
predicting.

The Kerry campaign said the analysis was an improper
use of taxpayer money, and the Labor Department
acknowledged Friday, "Clearly, this kind of armchair
political analysis doesn't belong in government memos,
even if they are entirely internal."

The Labor Department report, obtained by The
Associated Press, includes an analysis of economic
models that suggest Bush will beat Democrat John
Kerry. Titled "In Focus: Predicting the Election
Outcome," the memo says, "Nearly every single model
has him winning."

"Some show the margin of victory being smaller than
the models' inherent margin of error, while others
report the lead as substantial. And this is without
the consideration of a third-party candidate."

Bush's win of the popular vote could be 57.5 percent,
55.7 percent or 51.2 percent, said the paper, dated
Oct. 22 and prepared by the department's Employment
and Training Administration staff for the assistant
labor secretary.

The Bush administration blamed midlevel employees for
preparing inappropriate government material.

"This appears to be an internal ETA document prepared
by midlevel ETA staff," said Labor Department
spokesman Ed Frank.

Kerry's campaign contended the Bush administration was
wasting taxpayers' money.

"If the Bush administration focused more on the
economy and less on politics, George Bush would not be
the first president in 70 years to lose jobs," said
Kerry campaign spokesman Phil Singer. "George Bush has
turned the government into his own taxpayer-funded
political machine."

The document also includes a Washington Post story, an
article from Monster.com and charts and briefs on the
latest economic indicators.

One factor in the election that has been "downplayed
is the president's popularity," a variable the report
says may be important. "Fortunately, there are models
(that) incorporate this concept," it says.

The economic models are not infallible, but they do
"systematically measure past data, which is a far cry
better than relying on anecdotal evidence," the paper
says. The models looked at an array of economic
indicators, including gross domestic product,
unemployment and inflation.

The analysis also discusses a futures market that lets
players bid on a probable election outcome. It also
checked Web sites of oddsmakers in America and abroad.