The Talk Show American

THE TALK SHOW AMERICAN: 10/15/2006 - 10/22/2006

Thursday, October 19, 2006

A Bogus Study on Iraq Casualties

Talk Show America 10/19/2006



A bogus study on Iraq casualties

BY STEVEN E. MOORE

After doing survey research in Iraq for nearly two years, I was surprised to read that a study by a group from Johns Hopkins University claims that 655,000 Iraqis have died as a result of the war. Don't get me wrong, there have been far too many deaths in Iraq by anyone's measure; some of them have been friends of mine. But the Johns Hopkins tally is wildly at odds with any numbers I have seen in that country. Survey results frequently have a margin of error of plus or minus 3% or 5%--not 1200%.

Networks Distort a Good Economy

Network news stories have painted a bleak picture of an economy in decline. Reporters treated gas prices as a metaphor for the economy � only when they were high. And a slowing housing market coming off two record years was just another club used against Republican incumbents by a pessimistic press.

But the truth of the economy is far different. The United States continues to enjoy solid job growth. In the last year, 1.7 million new jobs were added and nearly 6 million have been created since August 2003 � a streak of more than three years of positive growth. Unemployment is a low 4.7 percent. Gas prices have declined once again � more than 75 cents from their recent highs. And though the economy actually grew just 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2006, which followed the rapid expansion of the first quarter � revised upward to 5.6 percent.

That�s not how things looked on the evening news shows on all three broadcast networks � ABC, CBS and NBC. The Media Research Center�s Business & Media Institute looked at all stories referencing the �economy� or �economic� news between Aug. 1, 2005, and July 31, 2006.

Here are some key findings:

Reports Negatively Charged: More than twice as many stories and briefs focused on negative aspects of the economy (62 percent) compared to good news (31 percent). News broadcasts dwelled on one prospective cataclysm after another, yet each time the economy continued unfazed.

Negative Stories Given More Air Time: Bad news was emphasized on all three networks. Negative news appeared in full-length stories twice as often as it appeared in shorter, brief items. Good news was relegated to briefs. More good news appeared in brief form than as full-length stories.

Man-on-the-Street Interviews Spin Stories: Reporters used ordinary people to underscore negative stories by roughly a 3-to-1 ratio over positive. Since these are interviews chosen entirely by the reporter, this shows particular bias. NBC was especially bad at this, featuring negative accounts six times as often as positive ones.

Worst Network: More than 80 percent of the full-length stories on the �CBS Evening News� delivered a negative view of the economy � easily the worst of the three broadcast news programs. The network hid the good news of jobs or economic growth in short items. More than 56 percent of CBS�s brief stories were positive.

Best Network: ABC was hardly the �best� anything for its economic coverage. It simply wasn�t as negative as either NBC or CBS. More than 56 percent of ABC reports were negative compared to slightly more than 36 percent positive.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Global Warming Debunked


Talk Show America 10/18/2006



Global Warming Debunked!

One of the most decorated French geophysicists has
converted from a believer in manmade catastrophic global warming to a
climate skeptic. This latest defector from the global warming camp
caps a year in which numerous scientific studies have bolstered the
claims of climate skeptics. Scientific studies that debunk the dire
predictions of human-caused global warming have continued to
accumulate and many believe the new science is shattering the
media-promoted scientific "consensus" on climate alarmism.

READ MORE ABOUT IT HERE:
Scientist Defects From Belief in Global Warming

Monday, October 16, 2006

OPEC: Crude Demand Falling

Despite falling oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries says that demand for its crude will be lower than previously expected, citing economic uncertainties and high inventories.

OPEC now says that fourth-quarter demand for OPEC crude, which is known as the call on OPEC, will average 28.69 million barrels per day, down from its previous forecast of 28.86 million bpd, according to its October report.

"Uncertainties about global economic prospects particularly in the USA, slowing demand growth, rebounding non-OPEC supply and high stock levels have triggered a strong bearish sentiment in the market," said the report.

"This has led to some concern that the downward momentum might persist, causing prices to overshoot and fall below levels justified by fundamentals," it added.

Oil prices this morning dipped back down to $58.35 a barrel, down 25.6 percent from a high of $78.40 per barrel in mid-July. OPEC President Edmund Daukoru labeled the price drop as "catastrophic," according to Reuters. A sustained 20 percent drop is considered a bear market.


The announcement comes as OPEC prepares to meet on Thursday to discuss a cut in production. The group has already agreed on a cut of 1 million bpd, but needs to discuss which countries will lose the revenue that comes with a price cut.

OPEC also cut its 2007 forecast for crude demand. The group says it expects demand to fall to 28.08 million bpd from its previous forecast of 28.72 million bpd. OPEC says non-OPEC crude supply will rise by 1.8 million bpd to average 53 million bpd.

OPEC maintained its 2007 outlook for demand growth, expecting the world to add 1.3 million more bpd to consumption. It cut the 2006 forecast by 100,000 bpd to 1 million bpd.

OPEC says the drop in demand will mainly come from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries or the developed world because of slowing economies whereas the developing countries, such as China and India, will continue to increase consumption, reports CNN Money.

"China and the Middle East will lead the world oil demand growth with 0.42 mb/d and 0.30 mb/d respectively," OPEC's report said.

Pace Thanks Heroes in Massachusetts

Gen Pace Honors Veterans in J.R.'s Hometown

WORCESTER, Mass., Oct. 16, 2006 - The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of
Staff and the commonwealth's senior U.S. senator offered a heartfelt
"thank you" to the military community during a tribute concert awash in
patriotism and pageantry here last night.

Against a backdrop of American flags, Marine Gen. Peter Pace expressed
gratitude to more than 400 Gold Star family members in the audience of
nearly 1,500 gathered at Mechanics Hall for the "Memorial Concert and
Tribute to Today's War Heroes." The "Gold Star" designation indicates
that a family member has been lost in service to the country.

"There are no words any of us could possibly choose that could lessen
your pain," Pace said. He had visited earlier with Gold Star family
members and former prisoners of war.

The chairman also acknowledged the contributions of two Medal of Honor
recipients from the Korean War, and 26 ex-POWs representing U.S.
conflicts from World War II to the present.

"To the two Medal of Honor recipients and 26 (prisoners of war) who
were introduced earlier: Thank you for showing those of us who serve today
how to serve," he said. The honorees, he added, "exemplify all that all
of us who serve today hope that we might ourselves show and do."

2nd warning for Muslims to leave U.S. before attack

Another Pakistani journalist is reporting receiving another threat � this one from a senior Taliban leader � warning all Muslims to leave the U.S. in anticipation of a major terrorist attack before the end of Ramadan.

The head of the Islamabad-based al-Quds Center reported receiving an audio message from Mullah Masoom Afghani urging U.S. Muslims to get out of the country "because Allah's punishment would fall on America in the month of Ramadan."

Jamal Ismail is the journalist who received the message. He formerly worked for al-Jazeera. He told the News of Pakistan that he received a phone call Oct. 5 from Afghani.

"Afghani said he was speaking from somewhere in Kandahar province," reported Ismail. "In it, he advised Muslim residents of America to get out to escape harm because the U.S. could face big attacks in the month of Ramadan."

Ismail said it was the first time Afghani, who is head of the pro-Taliban cleric's consultative council and former ambassador of Afghanistan to Pakistan, had ever sent such a message.

"Afghanis didn't say that it was a dream," recalled Ismail. "It appeared that he strongly believed that America was going to face punishment at the hands of Allah."

Sunday, October 15, 2006

Security Council OKs N. Korea Sanctions

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously on Saturday to impose punishing sanctions on North Korea including ship searches for banned weapons, calling Pyongyang's claimed nuclear test "a clear threat to international peace and security."

North Korea immediately rejected the resolution, and its U.N. ambassador walked out of the council chamber after accusing its members of a "gangster-like" action which neglects the nuclear threat posed by the United States.

The U.S.-sponsored resolution demands that the reclusive communist nation abandon its nuclear weapons program, and orders all countries to prevent North Korea from importing or exporting any material for weapons of mass destruction or ballistic missiles. It orders nations to freeze assets of people or businesses connected to these programs, and ban the individuals from traveling.

The resolution also calls on all countries to inspect cargo leaving and arriving in North Korea to prevent any illegal trafficking in unconventional weapons or ballistic missiles. The final draft was softened from language authorizing searches, but was still unacceptable to China - the North's closest ally and largest trading partner - which said it would not carry out any searches.

The resolution demands North Korea eliminate all its nuclear weapons but expressly rules out military action against the country, a demand by the Russians and Chinese. Bolton warned Pyongyang, however, that if it continues pursuing nuclear weapons, the U.S. would seek further measures.

The Security Council condemned the nuclear test that North Korea said it conducted on Oct. 9. It demanded that North Korea immediately return to six-nation talks aimed at persuading Pyongyang to dismantle its weapons program without precondition.

It also imposed sanctions for the North's "flagrant disregard" of the council's appeal not to detonate a nuclear device and demanded that North Korea "not conduct any further nuclear test or launch of a ballistic missile."

"This action by the United Nations, which was swift and tough, says that we are united in our determination to see to it that the Korean peninsula is nuclear-weapons free," President Bush said.

White House Upbeat About GOP Prospects

Amid widespread panic in the Republican establishment about the coming midterm elections, there are two people whose confidence about GOP prospects strikes even their closest allies as almost inexplicably upbeat: President Bush and his top political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some Republicans on Capitol Hill are bracing for losses of 25 House seats or more. But party operatives say Rove is predicting that, at worst, Republicans will lose only 8 to 10 seats -- shy of the 15-seat threshold that would cede control to Democrats for the first time since the 1994 elections and probably hobble the balance of Bush's second term.

In the Senate, Rove and associates believe, a Democratic victory would require the opposition to "run the table," as one official put it, to pick up the necessary six seats -- a prospect the White House seems to regard as nearly inconceivable.

The Mark Foley page scandal and its fallout have many Republicans panicked, but Rove professes to be taking it in stride. "The data we are seeing from individual races and the national polls would tend to indicate that people can divorce Foley's personal action from the party," he said in a brief interview Thursday.

The official White House line of supreme self-assurance comes from the top down. Bush has publicly and privately banished any talk of losing the GOP majorities, in part to squelch any loss of nerve among his legions. Come January, he said last week, "We'll have a Republican speaker and a Republican leader of the Senate."

To Rove and the small cadre of operatives who have been at his side throughout the administration -- including Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman and White House political director Sara Taylor -- confidence flows from a conviction that a political operation that has produced three consecutive national victories is capable of one more, despite voter disaffection with Iraq and GOP scandals in Washington.

Republican officials say the three closely coordinate strategy, with constant e-mails and a daily conference call. They see this familiarity -- in many respects it is the same team leading GOP strategy as in the past two elections -- as one advantage they have over Democrats, whose leaders on Capitol Hill and national party officials have been at odds on strategy.

So far, there have been few surprises in the Bush-Rove playbook, which seems little changed over the past four years. It includes tapping the powers of incumbency, mobilizing Christian conservatives and others in the GOP base, and seeking to polarize the electorate around national security and taxes. A huge effort to raise money by Bush, Vice President Cheney and first lady Laura Bush seems to be paying off: By Taylor's calculation, the various GOP campaigns and party committees will have a $55 million money advantage in the final three weeks of the campaign.

The RNC is also planning another big get-out-the-vote drive in the final three days before the elections. Rove believes that many of the polls in individual House and Senate races understate what he expects to be a GOP advantage in turnout, according to one party strategist who has heard him discuss the midterms.

Taylor, an Iowa native and protege of Mehlman's, said the administration recognized long ago that this would be a difficult campaign, coming in the sixth year of a presidency. "History suggests this will be a tough year for us," she said. "But at some point, the weight of our structural advantages makes up ground. And the message is really more important than all of that. When it comes to the war on terror, people have confidence in the policies that are keeping the country safe."

US inflation eases on fuel costs

US inflation eased in August as energy prices cooled significantly.
Consumer prices rose 0.2% last month, down from July's 0.4% gain. Annual inflation in August was 2.8%, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Energy costs rose just 0.3% in August compared to the 2.9% rise seen in July, as global oil prices fell back from record highs near $78 a barrel.

The Federal Reserve held interest rates at 5.25% last month, but economists have not ruled out further rises.

Fed chairman Ben Bernanke has consistently warned of the dangers of inflationary pressures in recent months, and August's 2.8% annual inflation rate is higher than July's 2.7%.

Excluding food and energy prices, the Labor Department said its core consumer price index inflation guide also rose 0.2% in August, the same as July's gain.

Analysts broadly welcomed the latest inflation figures, saying they still expected the Fed to keep interest rates on hold later this month but raise them again towards the end of the year.

"If you do the maths it means inflation is OK and there is no reason for the Fed to raise rates at the next meeting," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management.

"It's a little bit disappointing, but I wouldn't read too much into it because the numbers do tend to bounce around a little bit," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates.

"The economy has slowed down from what we have seen earlier in the year, but it is still consistent with growth overall."

A further sign that while US economic growth has slowed, the economy is still healthy has come in the form of the latest consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan.

The closely watched guide found that consumer sentiment rose to 84.4 in September from August's 82.

Modest increase to US job figures

US employers added a modest 128,000 jobs in August, the latest sign that while the economy is still expanding, the rate of growth has slowed.

The US Labor Department said the new additions to the payroll pulled the unemployment rate down to 4.7% last month from the 4.8% seen in July.

Analysts welcomed the figures, saying they gave more reason for the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates on hold.

Last month, the Fed kept rates at 5.25% saying economic growth was now slowing.

This brought to an end almost two years of rate rises as the Fed sought to calm US economic growth and head off inflationary pressure.

"If there ever was an employment report that hit the sweet spot, this is it," said economist Robert Brusca.

"The report is good and should be deemed good for both bonds and stocks."

The US economy needs to create 125,000 to 150,000 jobs each month to keep up with the growth in the working population.

US economy still growing

The US economy has continued to grow in most parts of the country since early September, says the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book survey.
Its report helped the Dow Jones hit yet another record close - its fifth in two weeks - ending up 96 points to 11,948.

The Fed's study of economic conditions in 12 regions across the US said four areas had seen strong growth, and six had seen moderate or mixed expansion.

Only two districts reported that growth had cooled - Philadelphia and Dallas.

Most regions reported stronger consumer spending, but they also said there were some inflationary pressures.

In September, the Fed kept interest rates on hold at 5.25% for a second successive month, in the face of signs that US economic growth was slowing down.

While the latest Beige Book report is upbeat on economic growth but cautious on inflation, official figures earlier this week showed that US producer prices rose by just 0.1% in September, and the level of housing construction was down 6%.

Data has also shown varied retail sales.

"The read on it [the Beige Book] is that it is fairly benign and the markets have responded positively," said Michael Panzner, a trader with Collins Stewart in New York.